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Major League Baseball Playoff Predictions 2014 - Bruce Bukiet

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New Jersey Institute of Technology

NJIT Math Professor Launches Postseason Projections Page: Stay up to Date with the Changing Probabilities as the World Series Approaches

NEWARK, Oct. 3, 2014—Now that Major League Baseball’s regular season has ended with the wild wildcard win by the Kansas City Royals over the Oakland A’s and with the Pittsburgh
Pirates being eliminated by the San Francisco Giants, NJIT math professor Bruce Bukiet has once again begun analyzing the probability of each team advancing through each round of baseball’s postseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers (71%) and the Washington Nationals (68%) have the greatest chance of advancing to the National League Championship Series going into their first Division Series games. The Kansas City Royals (61%) and Baltimore Orioles (64%) after winning the first game of their Division Series have turned themselves from underdogs into favorites.

At the season’s start, Bukiet used his mathematical model to project the number of wins each team should earn (see: http://m.njit.edu/~bukiet/baseball/SeasonProjections2014.html). Bukiet’s model picked seven of the ten post-season teams back in March, a result as good or better than most of the experts (at Yahoo Sports, Sports Illustrated, ESPN etc.). He tied for first this season at Baseballphd.net’s annual contest to pick the teams who would make it to the playoffs.after being the sole winner 3 times from 2010-2013.

On Bukiet’s website, www.egrandslam.com, he provides the likelihood of each team taking the series in a given number of games. These numbers are revised as the probabilities change with the progression of each series. During the season Bukiet applies his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games each day during the baseball season.

His picks have led to positive results for 9 of the 14 years (counting 2014’s thus far somewhat disappointing performance) he has been doing this. The method uses a Markov process approach which he originally published in the journal Operations Research, the method enables one to assess prospective trades and evaluate who should win the Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards among various other applications.

Bukiet’s MVP and Cy Young results and the updated method to produce them have appeared in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sports. The model computes the probability of a team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, lineup, relievers scoring any number of runs along with home field advantage to compute the chance each team has to win a
game.

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